Introduction

In this analysis, we explore the possibility of Konan destroying Nagato's Rinnegan before the final confrontation with Madara Uchiha, exploring the implications on the story's progression and the outcome of the Fourth Great Shinobi War.

The First Scenario: Manipulation and Infinite Tsukiyomi

One potential scenario involves Obito manipulating Sasuke to awaken the Rinnegan by stealing Naruto's cells. Once Sasuke has the Rinnegan, he could perform the Infinite Tsukiyomi to put faith in his ability to manipulate the battlefield. However, there are significant challenges to this approach.

First, Obito would need to manipulate Sasuke, which would be a significant feat given that Sasuke did not believe he was special like Madara. Additionally, at this point in the story, Naruto is already an absolute powerhouse and, after Guy, the strongest living person. His clones can casually defeat the third Raikage, and Might Guy, who could beat anyone, would pose a formidable opponent.

The Second Scenario: Reviving Madara for a Second Rinnegan

A second scenario involves Obito soliciting Kabuto for assistance to revive Madara. With a revived Madara, both Sasuke and Naruto would have a formidable opponent to contend with. Madara would need to defeat both Sasuke and Naruto to make new Rinnegan. If successful, Madara could create slaves out of them and forge new Rinnegan.

However, several obstacles remain. Orochimaru and Might Guy would still need to be dealt with. Additionally, Edo Tensei Minato would be able to track Naruto, further complicating the situation. Also, Obito would not have the power to revive Madara again due to Madara's complete restoration.

The Third Scenario: Reviving Edo Shisui for Hypnotization

A third option is to revive Edo Shisui and use him to hypnotize both Naruto and Sasuke. This would be a simpler approach but comes with a significant risk as Obito has warned.

Despite the challenges, the third scenario could exacerbate Obito’s difficulties. With no Rinnegan in his possession, he would be unable to revive Juubi in his view. This would make it unlikely he would attempt to summon the Ten-Tails, and Madara would also lack the power to do so since his revival cycle has ended.

Conclusion

In conclusion, the scenario where Konan destroys Nagato's Rinnegan before the final confrontation with Tobi would introduce numerous complications for Obito and his allies. The alliance would face significant challenges, which could tip the balance in their favor, leading to a more successful outcome with fewer losses against the resurrected Edo Madara.

The events of the Fourth Great Shinobi War would likely be drastically altered. Without the Ten-Tails, the fourth great shinobi war would not have occurred. Hidden Leaf would have been secured, and key figures such as Neji and Naruto’s close friendship with Kurama's Kyuubi would not have been formed. Sasuke would have taken over for Itachi, using his Edo Tensei and Susanoo to secure a different path for the Hidden Leaf Village.

The absence of the Rinnegan in Obito would mean that he would focus on other strategies, such as summoning from the Gedo Mazo or relying on Kamui. Without the ability to use Rinnegan, Obito’s plans for reviving the Ten-Tails would be less feasible. In the event of such plans, either he would retreat into obscurity or turn to Kabuto to use a weaker Edo Mode clone's Rinnegan to attempt the revival of Juubi.