Introduction

The hypothetical scenario of Aerys II Targaryen not attending the tournament at Harrenhal raises interesting questions about how the course of events in the realm would have transpired. Aerys, fearing a conspiracy against him while mistakenly believing that Jaime Lannister was his secret son, never sent Thfeofer to search for him. This has significant implications for the story, including the chance for a less catastrophic outcome for Westeros.

Consequences of Aerys Not Attending the Tournament

Had Aerys not attended the tournament at Harrenhal, the king’s paranoia could have led to a different series of events. Unable to confirm whether Jaime was indeed his secret son, Aerys would have become increasingly paranoid, potentially leading to his decline into madness. This paranoia would have caused him to avoid actions that could alienate powerful houses, such as sending Thfeofer to search for him.

Given this scenario, Rhaegar Targaryen would have played a pivotal role. Without the threat of being seen as a usurper, Rhaegar might have been in a position to call a Great Council and have Aerys removed from power. As a legitimate claimant, Rhaegar would have been able to assume the role of regent without opposition from the Kingsguard, who would recognize the historical and political legitimacy of this decision. This scenario would significantly alter the narrative trajectory, potentially preventing the eventual war and rebellion that led to the fall of the Targaryens.

Alternative Path for Rhaegar

Under this hypothetical timeline, Rhaegar would have been in a position to unify the realm without conflict. In as little as a year or two, he could have arranged a suitable marriage for himself, ensuring that any potential threats to the throne were neutralized. The legend of the Primal Serpent and the prophecy of the Dragon Princess, which required him to have sex with Lyanna Stark, would have emerged as a way to maintain the coherent narrative of the struggle against the Others. However, by then, key remaining female claimants and influential houses could have been married off or neutralized, reducing the likelihood of rebellion.

If Rhaegar's behavior continued to escalate, leading to increasing madness, he could still be removed and a regent appointed for the young king, Daeron II. Oberyn Martell, with Brandon Stark as Hand, and Robert Baratheon as Master of Ships, could have assumed the regency, providing a stable and respected leadership for the realm. The dramatic changes in the political landscape, including the support of the Westermarch, the Vale, Dorne, and the Reach, would have been a significant shift from the original narrative, potentially leading to a more stable and unified Westeros.

The Impact of the Tournament's Fundamentality

It is noteworthy that if the tournament at Harrenhal was actually sponsored by Rhaegar, the political dynamics could have been drastically different. In this scenario, a movement could arise to depose Aerys or place Rhaegar in a regent role, significantly altering the power structure of Westeros. The attendance at Harrenhal would have brought together key lords and bannermen, including:

Three Lord Paramounts: These powerful lords would have been instrumental in shaping the political landscape. The Heir to Winterfell: As a key northern leader, his support would have been crucial for Rhaegar. The Prince of Dorne's Brother: Although his marriage to his sister might not have been significant, his presence would have added weight to Rhaegar's cause.

With a well-orchestrated maneuver, Rhaegar might have succeeded in enlisting the support of the North, Vale, Dorne, and Reach. The release of Jaime from the vows of the Kingsguard and the potential support of the Lannisters through the betrothal of the Lannister-Catling line could have secured the support of the Westerlands and the Crownlands. These powerful alliances would have put significant pressure on Aerys, likely forcing him to cede power.

However, the success of this plan is contingent on the secrecy and careful orchestration of the event. A failure to carefully plan the tournament could lead to betrayal, with someone informing on Rhaegar. Conversely, if the event was not funded by Rhaegar, the outcome would resemble the original storyline, with the jousting and melee leading to key events that set the stage for the eventual rebellion and the rise of Robert Baratheon.

Conclusion

The hypothetical scenario of Aerys not attending the tournament at Harrenhal presents a fascinating alternative timeline for the narrative of A Song of Ice and Fire. This analysis suggests that without the tournament, the political landscape of Westeros could have been significantly different, leading to a more unified and stable realm. The decisions and actions of key figures, particularly Rhaegar and Aerys, would have played a crucial role in shaping the fate of the Seven Kingdoms.