If Sarumans Army Had Won at Helms Deep: Strategic Considerations

The Battle of Helms Deep is one of the most renowned engagements in the history of Middle-earth. What if Sarumans army had won, and how might it have shaped the course of the conflict? Let's explore the strategic implications.

Victory and Aftermath

My immediate thought would be that Saruman would send his victorious forces to Lothlorien, given the strategic importance of neutralizing Galadriel. However, Saruman is clearly under Saurons control, as evidenced by his use of the Palantir. Thus, it is more likely that he would heed Saurons commands, especially when the prize of Minas Tirith is at stake.

Target: Gondor

Sauron would not challenge Galadriel directly due to her considerable power with Nenya. Instead, he would likely direct Sarumans forces to Gondor. Minas Tirith is a key objective, and a victorious attack could significantly weaken Gondor's defenses. Even though Rohan was not defeated, the fall of Edoras and the siege of Dunharrow would severely impact its ability to continue the fight.

Further Actions and Strategic Analysis

Had Sarumans forces won at Helms Deep, they would naturally move on to Edoras to plunder and loot. From there, they would proceed to Dunharrow, where the Rohirrim could hold out due to its natural defenses. However, Erkenbrand's army would still present a formidable challenge. The victory at Helms Deep would not mark the end of the conflict but merely the beginning of a prolonged campaign.

Forces and Replacements

Saruman would likely need to split his forces, as Sauron presumably had more than one front. Other power centers such as Rivendell, Dale, and Erebor would also be targets. Sauron would likely instruct Saruman to focus his efforts on these strategic regions, ensuring a well-coordinated and spread-out assault.

Strategic Choices and Implications

Even if Theoden had been defeated, the bulk of Sarumans forces would encounter another significant obstacle: the Ents. The ground units would have been quickly neutralized by the Ents, who would have overwhelmed them. Any infantry that managed to advance would have been dealt with by the Saruman's own forces.

Victories in battles often come at a heavy cost. Sarumans Uruks, despite their apparent success, would face mass casualties from the Ents. The trees would have swarmed them, trampling and overwhelming them. Even if a few made it through, the fortress would have been a waiting death trap filled with starvation and isolation.

Conclusion and Strategic Direction

In summary, Sarumans forces would likely head to Gondor under Saurons commands. The victory at Helm's Deep would be more tactical than strategic, leading to further battles and defensive maneuvers. Lothlorien, while a potential target, would require extensive supplies and would be less likely due to its distance and the movement of the Elves.

Considering the power dynamics and the strategic landscape, the most probable course of action for Saruman would be to wait for reinforcements before launching a joint assault on Lothlorien. Sarumans forces, already weakened from battles and the creation of his army, would be at a significant disadvantage against the 9 Nazg?l. It is more likely that his exhausted forces would defect to Sauron, who could more effectively control and direct the remaining troops.