Strategic Analysis: The Potential Offense of Lothlorien, Rivendell, and Mirkwood Against Minas Morgul

Would the combined forces of Lothlorien, Rivendell, and Mirkwood be able to effectively attack and besiege Minas Morgul? Despite facing significant challenges and losses, their strategic and tactical approaches could still provide valuable outcomes.

Initial Offensive Options

While the successful attack on Minas Morgul is not promising without proper numbers and strategy, the potential remains. Any force, even the peaceful Shire, could theoretically attempt such an assault, albeit with minimal success.

Efficient Strategic Attack

The most sensible approach would involve a multi-pronged attack from behind using a mix of ranger archers and Noldorin exiles. This method aims to break the enemy's will to fight and create a break in their defenses. A main assault force of 7000 troops, supported by 2000 in reserve and 1000 knights prepared for a counterattack, would maximize their chances of success.

Key Commanders

The leadership should be competent and respected. Elrond, Gilgalad (a legendary elven lord), and Glorfindel would be ideal choices—each capable of leading their troops efficiently against such formidable enemies.

Potential Reinforcements and Counter-Attacks

In addition to the initial assault, reinforcements from Mirkwood and Lothlorien could lend significant support. Mirkwood would send 20,000 elves, ganging up with quick raids against the enemy forces. Meanwhile, Lothlorien would reinforce the main battleline, though their numbers would not be enough to hold against Uruk-hai at Helm's Deep.

Final Outcome and Casualties

Despite the title's assertion of a strategic defeat, the actual outcome could be a mixed bag. Losses would be substantial, but the combined efforts might still yield some key victories.

Elves: 1000 dedicated to terror tactics, 700 come out; 7000 to storm the castle, 5000 survive; 3000 reserved, remain unscathed. Garrison: 30,000 orcs—10,000 slay or flee, 5000 flee, remaining killed, 4 Ringwraiths—100 survive, 1000 Black Númenóreans—100 survive, counter-attack, elves besieged. Reinforcement Forces: 80,000 Gondorians, including satellite states and Rangers, arrive to retake their stronghold. Rohirrim: Vanguard of 50,000 cavalry joins Mirkwood, counter-attacks, Theoden lives and returns.

Conclusion and Aftermath

Despite the high casualties, a possible outcome is the defeat of the majority of the enemy forces. Key figures like Elrond and Glorfindel would perish, leaving the leadership to those like Arwen and Erestor. The Elven lords mentioned, save for Galdriel, would likely perish, leaving a combined 17,000 elves alive. Mirkwood would also suffer losses, but Legolas would eventually take control, preserving the lineage of their leader Thrandruil. Aftermath actions would see Rohan reclaiming territory and Gondor reestablishing a stronger presence in the region.

While these numbers might be exaggerated, they do illustrate the intense and decisive nature of such an attack.