India's Diplomatic and Military Pressure Triggered Pakistan's Release of IAF Wing Commander Abhinandan

The release of Wing Commander Abhinandan from Pakistan has long been a subject of debate, with various reasons proposed. The real reason, however, lies in the combination of intense diplomatic pressure and military aggression.

The Diplomatic Pressure/Framework

The international community, particularly Saudi Arabia, the United States, and Israel, played a significant role in pressuring Pakistan into releasing Wing Commander Abhinandan. The Pakistani MP Ayaz Sadiq, speaking in parliament, highlighted that the foreign minister Shah Mehmood Qureshi had informed the parliament about the external threat from India. Sadiq mentioned that India had threatened to attack by 9 PM if Abhinandan was not released. Additionally, it is reported that the Saudi Foreign Affairs Minister interacted with Imran Khan, pressurizing him to release the pilot.

The diplomatic efforts were well-coordinated, with the Indian government briefing the U.S. President and the National Security Advisor, along with Israel and Saudi Arabia. These efforts emphasized the potential consequences of non-compliance, potentially leading to a full-scale war. The U.S. and Saudi Arabia, along with other international partners, emphasized the importance of avoiding such a conflict.

Military Aggression and Preparation

Paralleling the diplomatic pressure, India demonstrated its military capability, showing a clear signal of aggression. By the time of the release, India had prepared 36 ballistic missiles in a ready-to-launch state, targeting major military bases and airbases in Pakistan. The Indian Navy, warships, and submarines moved towards Karachi, creating a blockade. All Indian airbases were placed on high alert, and military camps along the border were alerted for potential war conditions.

India’s Prime Minister, in a speech, highlighted the intensity of the preparedness with the phrase, “That night would have been a night of death for Pakistan.” These aggressive signals were meant to deter any further attempts by Pakistan to keep the Indian pilot.

The Final Decisions

Despite the military preparations, Pakistan initially showed resistance but ultimately succumbed to the pressure from both internal and external sources. The Pakistan ISI (Inter-Services Intelligence) and military were initially prepared to hold onto the pilot but realized the futility and grave consequences of continued hostilities. With the mounting pressure from the Americans and the Saudis, Pakistan felt compelled to release Abhinandan.

The release was announced in a parliamentary session, a fitting symbol of the international scrutiny and pressure brought to bear. While Pakistan attempted to stall the release to avoid immediate consequences, the final decision to release the pilot came under immense international and domestic pressure. This event ultimately underscored the importance of international diplomacy and deterrence in conflict resolution and peace maintenance.

It is clear that the release of Wing Commander Abhinandan was a multifaceted process, influenced equally by diplomatic and military factors. The steps taken by India and the supportive measures from the international community played a crucial role in ensuring compliance and peace.